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Travis's Blog


Posts from November 2012


Path to Miami Volume 6
In most years, we would all be thrilled with the chaos of the BCS because it would make the argument for a future playoff that much more convincing.  Now that a four team playoff has already been scheduled for 2014, the only benefit to all of the chaos is for people like me to have something to talk about.  It looks like a simple reality at the moment.  Notre Dame and the SEC champ have the inside track to the national championship game, while a total of 6 teams are still alive.  Below I have given a breakdown of what each team with a chance needs to do to reach the big game, along with each conference’s championship picture, and what I believe the BCS Bowl selections will look like.  Next Sunday night will be my 7th and final installment of this blog series, as the final BCS Standings and BCS Bowls will be revealed Sunday December 2nd
 
1 - NOTRE DAME - BCS Avg: .9973 (11-0) Remaining Schedule: @USC

For the first time since the BCS was implemented in 1998, Notre Dame holds the top spot.  It’s simple for the Irish, beat USC on the road Saturday, and you play for your first National Championship since 1988. With Matt Barkley officially ruled out for Saturday’s game, the Irish will most definitely be the favorite, and will be expected to win.
 
2 - ALABAMA -BCS AVG: .9333 (10-1) Sked: Auburn, SEC Title Game vs Georgia
 
The SEC is now almost guaranteed a spot in the title game for the 7th straight season, producing the champion in every season since 2006.  Alabama needs to beat an awful Auburn team at home on Saturday, then beat Georgia in the SEC Championship game, and they will be in Miami regardless of what happens with anyone else.
 
3 - GEORGIA - BCS Avg: .8763 (10-1) - Sked: Georgia Tech, SEC Title Game @ Atlanta (vs Bama LSU, or A&M)
 
Now that the Bulldogs are #3, they control their own destiny.  They shouldn’t have any trouble with Georgia Tech, and have already locked up a spot in the conference championship.  If they win, they play for the national championship for the first time in the BCS era.  Their last title game in 1980 with Hershel Walker in the backfield, and have not been in the top 2 of the BCS standings at any point.
 
4 - FLORIDA - BCS Avg: .8434 (10-1) Sked:, @ Florida State
 
Florida has a much more difficult road.  The fact that they are even in contention considering they were a minute and a half away from going to overtime with Louisiana Lafayette, and avoided that thanks to a blocked punt, and struggled offensively vs FCS Jacksonville State this week.  They need to win at Florida State Saturday, hope for a Notre Dame loss to USC, and hope Oregon doesn’t win the Pac-12 title.  If the Ducks do win, they will have beaten a top 15 Oregon State this week, and a top 15 UCLA next week, and because the BCS average is so close between Florida and Oregon, the Ducks will jump the Gators.  If all that does happen in the Gators favor, it will be an all-sec final for the second straight year.
 
5 - OREGON - BCS Avg: .8318 (10-1) Sked: @ Oregon State, Pac 12 Title Game vs UCLA (possibly)
 
The Ducks title hopes aren’t dead yet.  They didn’t take care of business vs Stanford Saturday, I’ll leave the commentary on that for our radio show.  First, they have to beat Oregon State this weekend.  They also need USC to beat Notre Dame.  If UCLA beats Stanford this week, the Ducks will host the Bruins in the conference championship with a win over the Beavers.  If they win that, and everything else happens their way, they will jump Florida, and play for the National Title, knowing either Georgia or Alabama will lose in the SEC title game.  If Stanford beats UCLA, the Ducks don’t play for the conference crown, but still have a shot.  They need Florida State to beat Florida, meaning 4 of the teams ahead of the Ducks will have lost, and they will be #2 and play the SEC winner.  Kansas State will not jump the Ducks with a win over Texas, and anyone below 7 (LSU, Stanford, Texas A&M and Florida State) will not move ahead of the Ducks either.  Long story short, if Oregon wins the Civil War, and USC beats Notre Dame, Oregon has a very good chance at still going to Miami.
 
6 - KANSAS STATE - BCS Avg: .7692 (10-1) Sked: Texas


Kansas State has the worst chance of any of the 6 at reaching the BCS Title Game.  They need Notre Dame to lose to USC, Florida to lose to FSU, and Oregon to either lose to Oregon State, or the Ducks to reach the Pac-12 title game and lose to UCLA.  Oh yeah, they need to beat Texas too.

Who Wins the BCS Conferences?

Pac-12
NORTH: If Stanford beats UCLA, they are in.  If Stanford loses, and Oregon beats Oregon State, the Ducks go.
SOUTH: UCLA wins the South.
Conference Champion: Stanford

SEC: 
WEST: Alabama clinches with a win vs Auburn.  Texas A&M and LSU are still alive, LSU plays Arkansas, and A&M plays Missouri.  If there is a 3 way tie, the team with the highest BCS ranking wins the division, that is likely LSU. LEAST: Georgia has clinched the east.
Conference Champion: Alabama

Big Ten:
Legends: Nebraska wins with a win at Iowa, or a Michigan loss at Ohio State.  Michigan is in with a win AND a Nebraska loss.
Leaders: Wisconsin has clinched the Leaders Division. 
Conference Champion: Nebraska

Big XII
There is no conference championship game.  K State wins with a win vs Texas. Oklahoma is the only other team with 1 conference loss, they play Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys and Longhorns also still have a shot.  If Texas and OK State win this weekend, there will be a 4 way tie and the highest ranked team wins.
Conference Champion: Kansas State 

ACC
Atlantic: Florida State has clinched the Atlantic.
Coastal: Miami wins with a win over Duke.  Should Miami lose, Georgia Tech wins the Coastal. 
Conference Champion: Florida State

BIG EAST:
Rutgers and Louisville both control their destiny, if they win out, either wins the conference. They face each other a week from Thursday at Rutgers.  They both have 2 games left, both winnable, Louisville hosts UConn, Rutgers is at Pitt.  There is a slight possibility of a 4 way tie with Syracuse and Cincinnati in the mix as well, but it’s a long shot.   
Conference Champion: Louisville

BCS BOWL SELECTION PROCESS:
 
1 – BCS #1 plays BCS #2 in the championship game.
2 – Automatic conference champion affiliations: Pac-12 – Rose, Big Ten – Rose, Big XII – Fiesta, ACC – Orange.
3 – The bowl that loses their automatic qualifier to the #1 ranking gets first pick. The bowl that loses their automatic qualifier to the #2 pick has the next selection.  On a rotating basis this years order of selecting at-large teams is Fiesta, then Sugar, then Orange.  If there is one spot left, and the Big East champion has not been selected, the Orange Bowl must select the Big East Champion.
4 – In order for a team to be eligible for an at-large selection they must finish in the top 14 of the final BCS Standings if from an automatic qualifying conference.  Since only 2 schools per conference are eligible, if there are no schools eligible in the top 14, the selecting bowl can go to the #15 ranked team, and so on.  For a school from a non automatic qualifying conference to be selected, they get an automatic bid if ranked in the top 6, or can be eligible for selection by being in the top 16, and ranked higher than an automatic qualifying conferences champion.


BCS BOWL PROJECTIONS:
 
Based on the above criteria, I have projected who will play in the BCS Bowls based on select scenarios.   There are more scenarios than what I have listed.  I’m assuming Florida State wins the ACC, Nebraska wins the Big Ten, and Louisville wins the Big East.  If they don’t, the actual conference champion will replace them, it will not change who goes where in these scenarios.
 
IF Notre Dame beats USC, Stanford wins the Pac-12, and Florida loses to Florida State. (If Florida wins, they replace LSU in the Sugar Bowl)

BCS TITLE GAME:(1) Notre Dame vs (2) Alabama
ROSE BOWL: Nebraska vs Stanford
FIESTA BOWL: Kansas State vs Oregon
ORANGE BOWL: Florida State vs Louisvile
SUGAR BOWL: LSU vs Oklahoma
 
IF Notre Dame beats USC, Oregon wins the Pac-12, and Florida loses to Florida State. (If Florida wins, they replace LSU in the Sugar Bowl)
 
BCS TITLE GAME:(1) Notre Dame vs (2) Alabama
ROSE BOWL: Nebraska vs Oregon
FIESTA BOWL: Kansas State vs Clemson
ORANGE BOWL: Florida State vs Louisvile
SUGAR BOWL: LSU vs Oklahoma
 
IF USC beats Notre Dame, Stanford wins the Pac-12, and Florida beats Florida State:
 
BCS TITLE GAME: (1) Alabama vs (2) Florida
ROSE BOWL: Nebraska vs Stanford
FIESTA BOWL: Kansas State vs Oregon
ORANGE BOWL: Florida State vs Louisvile
SUGAR BOWL: Notre Dame vs Oklahoma
 
If USC beats Notre Dame, Stanford wins the Pac-12 and Florida loses to Florida State 
 
BCS TITLE GAME: (1) Alabama vs (2) Oregon
ROSE BOWL: Nebraska vs Stanford
FIESTA BOWL: Kansas State vs Notre Dame
ORANGE BOWL: Florida State vs Louisvile
SUGAR BOWL: LSU vs Oklahoma
 
IF USC beats Notre Dame, Oregon wins the Pac-12, Florida loses to Florida State (If Florida wins, they replace LSU in the Sugar Bowl)
 
BCS TITLE GAME: (1) Alabama vs (2) Oregon
ROSE BOWL: Nebraska vs Notre Dame
FIESTA BOWL: Kansas State vs Clemson
ORANGE BOWL: Florida State vs Louisvile
SUGAR BOWL: LSU vs Oklahoma
 
There are dozens of other scenarios.  These scenarios are assuming UCLA does not finish in the top 14, and Clemson beats South Carolina.  We will have a more clear picture after this weekend.
 
For more, tune in to Travis & Wilcox weekdays Noon-3 pacific on ESPN Sports Radio 1080 The FAN, www.1080thefan.com and the 1080 The FAN app.
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Path to Miami Volume 5
With Alabama's loss to Texas A&M, things got much more simple, there are only 3 unbeaten bowl eligible teams left in FBS (Louisville lost Ohio State is not bowl eligible despite being 10-0 thanks to NCAA Sanctions).  It's still possible for K State, Oregon, and Notre Dame to lose a game with difficult opponents on each teams schedule.  If one of the 3 loses, it's easy to figure out.  If 2 of the 3 lose, it's a little more difficult.  If all 3 lose, I don't even want to think about what will happen.  I've been saying all year, just wait.... thing's always work themselves out, and this year is no different.  As every week, here is my take on each teams chance to reach the BCS Title game, along with conference and bowl predictions:

1 - KANSAS STATE - BCS Avg: .9674 (10-0) Sked: @ Baylor, Texas

At this point, Kansas State is almost guaranteed a spot in the BCS Title game should they win out.  The offense was contained Saturday by a decent TCU defense, and Collin Klein was visibly not himself.  The defense looked as strong as ever.  It really doesn't matter anymore if Oregon passes them, which is possible, as long as Notre Dame doesn't, they're fine.  Their lead in the BCS average over ND is so large, there is almost no chance of that happening unless the voters all of a sudden decide to make some drastic changes to their ballots. 

2 - OREGON - BCS Avg: .9497 (10-0) Sked: Stanford, @ Oregon State, Pac 12 Title Game

Duck fans can breathe a sigh of relief.  Like Kansas State, Oregon should be in Miami fairly easily if they win out.  Again, as long as you are in the top 2, that's all that counts, being #1 is not important.  There should be no worry about respect, Oregon has 90 of the 115 first place votes in the Harris Poll, and 44 of the 59 first place votes in the Coaches Poll, so the humans are clearly favoring Oregon.  The computer average is 4, and could be higher once it's all said and done.  There's very little chance that Notre Dame will pass them if both teams win out.  

3 - NOTRE DAME - BCS Avg: .9396 (10-0) Sked: Wake Forest, @USC

Really the only way for Notre Dame to reach the BCS Title game is if Oregon or Kansas State lose, and they don't.  Wake Forest should be easy this week, and USC the following week, not so much.  Even though they are #1 in the computers, there is just way too much of a gap in the human polls to even things out, and they don't have any opportunities left to change the voters' minds.  It's very difficult mathematically to catch up to either the Wildcats, or the Ducks. 
 
4 - ALABAMA -BCS AVG: .8534 (9-1) Remaining Schedule: Western Carolina, Auburn, SEC Title Game @ Atlanta

Bama still has a great shot at playing in Miami. If at least 2 of the top 3 lose, and they win out, they will be the highest ranked 1 loss team, and they will be in. It's not out of the question just yet. If all 3 of the top 3 lose 1 game, there's no question Bama gets in.

Can anyone outside of the top 4 play for the National Championship?

Yes.  If 2 of the top 3 lose, and #5 Georgia wins the SEC title game, they will be in.  That's the only chance, since 4 through 9 are all in the SEC.  A 1 loss Florida will not get in over a 1 loss K State, Oregon, ND, Alabama, or Georgia, since they can't win the SEC.  
Sure, there are other scenarios, but the chances of those happening are so incredibly slim, it's not worth getting into.  We can tackle that next week if necessary. 

Who Wins the BCS Conferences?

Pac-12
NORTH: If Oregon beats Stanford Saturday, they clinch the north.  Stanford would need to beat  Oregon and UCLA, or beat Oregon, lose to UCLA, and hope Oregon State beat's Oregon.  My Pick: Oregon
SOUTH: The winner of UCLA/USC Saturday clinches the south. My Pick: USC
Conference Champion: Oregon

SEC: 
WEST: Alabama can clinch the west with a win over Auburn, or a Texas A&M loss to Missouri. Texas A&M with a win over Missouri AND an Alabama loss to Auburn.  My Pick: Bama
EAST: Georgia has clinched the east. 
Conference Champion: Alabama

Big Ten:
Legends: Nebraska controlls their own destiny, wins over Minnesota and Iowa puts them in. Should they lose 1 of 2, they would need Michigan to lose to Iowa or Ohio State.  Michigan is in with 2 wins and 1 Nebraska loss. My Pick: Nebraska
Leaders: Wisconsin has clinched the Leaders Division. 
Conference Champion: Nebraska

Big XII
With no conference champion, the team with the best record wins the conference. If Kansas State beats Baylor OR Texas, they win the conference. Oklahoma wins with wins over WVU, OK State, and TCU and 2 losses by K State. 
Conference Champion: Kansas State 

ACC
Atlantic: Florida State clinches with a win over Maryland OR a Clemson loss to NC State.  Clemson wins with a win over NC State AND an FSU loss to Maryland. My Pick: Florida State
Coastal: Miami is in with a win over Duke OR a Georgia Tech loss to Duke. Duke, yes Duke is in with wins over Miami AND Georgia Tech. My Pick: Miami.  Duke has not looked very good the last 2 weeks in losses to FSU and Clemson, but I wouldn't be shocked if Duke gets there.  I'm rooting for it to happen. 
Conference Champion: Florida State

BIG EAST:
Rutgers is in by winning out (Cincy, Pitt, Louisville), Louisville is in by winning out (UConn, Rutgers), Cincinnati is in by winning out (Rutgers, USF, UConn) and a Louisville loss to Rutgers. That's the simple explanation.  There are more scenarios.
Conference Champion: Louisville

BCS BOWL PROJECTIONS:

Keep in mind, in order to reach a BCS game, you have to either win your automatic qualifying conference, be in the top 14 to be an AQ at large. Things could get interesting, as 6 SEC teams are currently in the top 14, meaning any team in the top 14 not in the SEC would automatically get in.

Whichever Bowl loses an automatic conference tie in, they get first pick.  Remember, only 2 teams per conference are eligible. Current Rankings in parenthesis. Below are my projections based on current standings, the selection process is listed below the projections.

BCS TITLE GAME:(1) Kansas State (BCS #1/BIG XII CHAMP) vs (2) OREGON (BCS #2/Pac 12 CHAMP)
ROSE BOWL: (14) NEBRASKA (BIG TEN CHAMP) vs (12) OKLAHOMA (AT LARGE)
FIESTA BOWL: (3) NOTRE DAME vs (6) FLORIDA (AT LARGE)
ORANGE BOWL: (10) FLORIDA STATE (ACC CHAMP) vs (19) LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST CHAMP)
SUGAR BOWL: (4) ALABAMA (SEC CHAMP) vs (11) CLEMSON (AT LARGE)

Selection Process:

Title Game is automatically BCS #1 vs BCS #2

The Fiesta Bowl gets first pick since they lose the #1 team to the championship game, they Pick Notre Dame.

The Rose Bowl is next since they lose the #2 team, they would select Oklahoma to play against Nebraska, who gets the automatic spot.  The Rose Bowl has been very public with the fact they want to keep tradition and select a Pac-12 team to play, but there may not be one eligible. Stanford (13), Oregon State (16), UCLA (17), and USC (18) would all lose again in this scenario, and may all be 15 or lower.  Because of where the Rose Bowl selects, they would not have the option of taking a team outside of the top 14. Oklahoma offers the best draw for travel, and the opportunity to have former conference rivals squaring off would be very attractive.

The Fiesta Bowl has the next pick based on yearly rotation, they pick Florida.

The Sugar Bowl has the next pick based on yearly rotation, they pick Clemson, who would play Alabama, who plays in this game based on their automatic conference tie in. 

The Orange Bowl gets the final pick based on yearly rotation, they would be stuck with Louisville, Florida State has an automatic conference tie in. 

If my projections are correct, 4 SEC teams in the top 14 would be left out, Texas could be in the top 14 and get left out with Kansas State and Oklahoma getting in.  There is a possibility that a Pac-12 Team could be ranked in the top 14, Stanford could lose to Oregon and still be there, UCLA would be if they beat USC and lose to Oregon in the Pac-12 title game, and they would play in the Rose Bowl.  USC could be there by winning out, and losing to Oregon, Oregon State could (unlikely) get in by beating Cal and losing to Oregon. If that happens, Clemson probably gets left out.  If that does happen, here are my Bowl projections.

Title Game: Kansas State vs Oregon
Rose Bowl: Nebraska vs UCLA/USC/Stanford/Oregon State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame vs Florida
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs Louisville 

For more, tune in to Travis & Wilcox weekdays Noon-3 pacific on ESPN Sports Radio 1080 The FAN, www.1080thefan.com and the 1080 The FAN app.

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Path to Miami Volume 4
This time Oregon wins, and jumps Notre Dame for what I think is for good.  I'm not going through the full top 10.  We're at the point where there are 4 contenders, so below is each of the top 4 teams chances to reach the title game, plus the likelihood for each conference champion and BCS Bowl Birth. 

 
1 - ALABAMA -BCS AVG: .9957 (9-0) Remaining Schedule: Texas A&M, Western Carolina, Auburn, SEC Title Game @ Atlanta

This is easy.  Alabama took care of LSU, so the remaining questions are A&M and Georgia in the SEC title game, which should both be wins.  At this point, I think we would all be more than surprised if Bama wasn't in Miami, now it's a question of who plays them.  AJ McCarron proved on several occasions in this game that he is more than capable of another title run.  I was a little suprised to see LSU's offense have as much success as they did, even though it was just 17 points.  I've heard a few of the experts say the final drive of the game was one of the best in Bama history.... I wouldn't say that, It was impressive, but on the final play LSU's D forgot how to tackle and was woefully out of position.  Bama found a way to win an incredibly difficult game. 

2 - KANSAS STATE - BCS Avg: .9318 (9-0) Sked: @TCU, @ Baylor, Texas

This is where it gets interesting.  How healthy is Collin Klein? If he is good to go, so are the Cats, if not, good luck.  The only ranked team left on the schedule is Texas who seems to have found the defense everyone expected in September.  While KST doesn't play a conference title game, the Texas game should provide just as much drama, even though the Horns won't win the conference.  If Texas keeps winning, it certainly helps the Wildcats chances.  Defensively, Kansas State looked outstanding, better than I had expected.  Because of that, they may get some extra love in the human polls.  More on this below. 

3 - OREGON - BCS Avg: .9166 (9-0) Sked: @CAL, Stanford, @ Oregon State, Pac 12 Title Game

321 yards and 5 TD's from Kenjon Barner.... 300+ from Marcus Mariota....700+ total yards.. 62 points.  This was against USC.  Absolutely unreal.  There is NO question Oregon has the best offense in the country.  I thought too often they didn't get enough safety help, and the corners were exposed.  I heard David Pollack say on ESPN it was an awful performance by the UO D. It wasn't good, let me start there, but calling it embarrassing, is extreme.  You have THE best receiver in the country and the best duo.  They have abusing defenses all year, and Barkley looked like the #1 pick putting balls where nobody else could.  The Ducks still have 3 tough games...no, not Cal.  There is a lot of work to be done.


4 - NOTRE DAME - BCS Avg: .9050 (9-0) Sked: @ BC, Wake Forest, @USC

How do you allow a team that lost at home to Youngstown State come within a foot of beating you in 2 OT, then survive in the third OT.  Notre Dame's offense left a lot to be desired.  The ONLY way they get in at this point with their schedule is to be 1 of 2 unbeatens.  PERIOD.

WHO FINISHES #2?

I was convinced last week that it would be Oregon, but now I'm not so sure.  It comes down to a couple of things at this point.  #1 - Can Oregon maintain their big lead in the human polls.  If they can keep that margin, they WILL close the gap in the computers enough to pass Kansas State.  They should pass Notre Dame in some of the computers eventually, and when Georgia loses to Alabama. They are between 4 and 7 in the computer polls, and need to be higher.  They should be.  I think if they are 4th or better in the computers they pass the Wildcats.

#2, Kansas State certainly has a chance as well.  If they maintain their lead in the computers and close the gap between themselves and Oregon in the human polls it is very likely they stay ahead of the Ducks.  With Notre Dame's schedule pretty bad in the coming weeks save USC, there is virtually no chance they pass either Oregon or Kansas State.

Who Wins the BCS Conferences?

Pac-12

In the North, Oregon is the front runner, but either the Ducks, Stanford or Oregon State can reach the conference title game by winning out. My pick: Oregon
In the South, UCLA is currently in first place with 2 losses, USC, and ASU have 3. UCLA runs the table, they're in the title game, same with USC.  UCLA beat ASU, they still play USC.  ASU needs to beat USC this week, and hope that UCLA loses twice, it could happen with USC and Stanford on the schedule. My pick: USC
Conference Champion: Oregon

SEC: 

In the West, Bama has it locked up. Even with a loss, they still hold the tiebreaker over LSU. No need to pick, it's Alabama.
In the East, Georgia holds their destiny.  Only a loss to Auburn keeps them out which would be highly unlikely.  Florida's conference schedule is over, they get in if Georgia loses.  My pick: Georgia
Conference Champion: Alabama

Big Ten:

Legends: Nebraska and Michigan each have 1 loss, Nebraska holds the tiebreaker, Michigan has a tougher sked with TOSU at the end of the year.Northwestern has a very outside chance, needs 2 more losses from Nebraska, and they need to beat Michigan this week and hope they lose to TOSU.  My Pick: Nebraska
Leaders: WIth Ohio State and Penn State not eligible, Wisconsin is the only team with a chance.
Conference Champion: Nebraska

Big XII

No conference title game here anymore.  Kansas State would have to lose twice to give up the conference championship.  Oklahoma has 1 loss....to KST.  Texas has 2 losses, and still plays K State.
Conference Champion: Kansas State (I went out on a limb here)

ACC

Atlantic: It's a two team race between FSU and Clemson, both have one loss, FSU beat Clemson.  They both play a joke of a Maryland team, FSU still has Virginia Tech who is below average, and Clemson has NC State.  They both finish 7-1 in the conference. My Pick: Florida State
Coastal: Yuck. Miami and UNC have 2 losses, UNC is not eligible for post season play. So that means a 2 loss Miami team will play a 3 loss duke team in the final conference game for a spot in the title game. What the hell happened to this conference.  My pick: Miami
Conference Champion: Florida State


BIG EAST:

Louisville and Rutgers are both unbeaten in conference play, Rutgers still has to play at Cincinnati, and hosts the Cardinals in the final game of the season.  ZZZZZZZZ
Conference Champion: Louisville


BCS BOWL PROJECTIONS:

Keep in mind, in order to reach a BCS game, you have to either win your automatic qualifying conference, be in the top 14 to be an AQ at large, or in the top 16 for a non AQ school and ahead of a conference Champion in the BCS Standings.  Remember, only 2 teams per conference are eligible. Current Rankings in parenthesis. 

BCS TITLE GAME:(1)  ALABAMA (BCS #1/SEC CHAMP) vs (2) OREGON (BCS #2/Pac 12 CHAMP)
ROSE BOWL: (16) NEBRASKA (BIG TEN CHAMP) vs (11) OREGON STATE (AT LARGE)
FIESTA BOWL: (2) KANSAS STATE (BIG 12 CHAMP) vs (10) LOUISVILLE (BIG EAST CHAMP)
ORANGE BOWL: (9) FLORIDA STATE (ACC CHAMP) vs (12) OKLAHOMA (AT LARGE)
SUGAR BOWL: (7) LSU (AT LARGE) vs (4) NOTRE DAME (AT LARGE)

I mentioned this last week, the only chance Oregon State has to get in is to finish in the top 14, and have Oregon play for the National Championship.  Because the Rose Bowl loves tradition, they will go with a Pac-12 team if eligible.  If the Ducks play in the Rose Bowl, OSU doesn't have the cache that other eligible teams do to be selected.  A 1 loss Clemson gets left out behind a 2 loss Oklahoma thanks to their fanbase travelling better to Glendale.  

Just for S&G's..... in case Oregon doesn't play for the Natty, it could play out like thisL

Title game: Bama vs K State
Rose: Oregon vs Nebraska
Orange: Florida State vs Louisville
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs Notre Dame
Sugar: LSU vs Clemson

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